I feel the need….. the need for speed

You’re dangerous Maverick: The movie that catapulted Tom Cruise’s action hero credentials to the public consciousness. Image source: 1

In 1986, the movie Top Gun ruled the box office, raking in more than 350 million dollars. The movie was centered on kinship with a fellow wingman, dangerous piloting skills, classic rivalry and a man who was yet to be synonymous with the mission impossible franchise. The movie made the thirst for speed and living dangerously sexy. The movie put bums on seats but did not win any of the major awards at the Academy. The movie was credited with the surge in sales of the Ray Ban Aviator model and a 500% increase in the number of men wanting to be Naval Aviators. I was far too young in 1986 to remember the iconic quote from the movie which typified “Maverick” but years later, when I caught it on Satellite television, it was already a rite of passage for high school boys in India eager to demonstrate a grasp of “other” cultures. Many a superstar has vied for the crown of the all action Hollywood star but even today, at 50+, few can match Tom Cruise in his sheer penchant for high octane action. The iconic quote inspired a racing game series, which in turn had a symbiotic relationship with the Fast and Furious franchise. The basic premise was built on the viewing thrill of a protagonist’s adrenaline being fuelled by the need for speed.

Sehwag is the only batsman alongside Bradman to have scored 250+ four times and 290+ three times in test cricket. Image source: 2

One could be mistaken for making the association of Sehwag’s career with the very same set of words. After all, the much loved Paul Walker from the Fast and the Furious franchise had a character timeline overlapping with Sehwag’s. Rajesh and Sidvee have deconstructed Sehwag’s legacy in the Indian team in their own very contrasting ways. Sehwag’s buccaneering style brought a smile to a country which wanted to define its own place in the world, poignantly captured- in a narrative of Gavaskar, Tendulkar and Sehwag intertwined together with India’s story- by an American in the midst of the 2011 World Cup. The numbers are there for everyone to see; Sehwag has 4 out of the top 6 highest scores made by an Indian in a test match. For a generation so used to seeing the 236* as the proverbial four minute mile from a bygone era, the floodgates opened from 2001 with 9 forays into unchartered waters with Sehwag as the most frequent navigator. This exemplified India’s golden age of batting more than anything else.

Sehwag’s record as an opener is exemplary- amongst the openers who have scored 5000 test runs, Sehwag is perched in the company of other illustrious batsmen such as Hutton, Hobbs, Hayden and Gavaskar as the only men to average above 50. As many statisticians have pointed out, Sehwag is in a league of his own in the strike rate as an opener measure, a lofty 83 with others in the whereabouts of 60 since 2001 (minimum 5000 runs). The numerical value of SR at 83 has its own significance- it means that Sehwag scored at a run rate of ~5 when the rest of the world scored at 3.24 (SR of 54). Adam Gilchrist, of the swashbuckling blade that followed 5 batsmen who scored at 45+ per dismissal, is the only peer who is in the neighbourhood of Sehwag in the last 20 years. This is an exemplary achievement considering that only 20 men have scored 5000 runs at a greater strike rate in the ODI format, with Richards, Jayasuriya and Tendulkar as the only players to make their debut before 1996.

A shot in time, saves nine: Sehwag, as a result of his quick batting, has saved more overs than any other test cricketer. Image source: 3

A knock- on effect of Sehwag’s blitzkrieg strike rate is his balls faced per dismissal. Sehwag has one of the lowest balls faced per dismissal (60) as a consequence of his high strike rate (discounting lower order batsmen of course). To put this into perspective, other top notch batsmen (average ~50 for whom ball by ball data is available), clock in at least 100 balls per dismissal as they score at a serene 50 SR. In other words, for scoring the same 50 runs, Sehwag saves ~6.4 overs per dismissal at a bare minimum. If we stretch this to further to Kallis/ Dravid territory (123+ balls per dismissal), Sehwag gave his teammates an extra 10.3 overs by the time he scored his 50 runs and got dismissed. The impact of the extra overs to bowl out the opposition cannot be discounted. Hayden and Smith were part of sides which had their bowling attack dismiss a batsman every 60 balls. This implies that when Australia & South Africa were winning test matches, they were conceding 600 runs and in turn dismissing the opposition in 200 overs (a little over 2 days). In contrast, India with a pedestrian bowling attack had to face the double whammy of conceding 35 runs per wicket and bowl an extra ~1.2 overs per dismissal. The corresponding figures that India would accrue are 700 runs after managing to dismiss the opposition twice, thus staying on the field for 25 overs extra. By virtue of India’s poor bowling attack, not only were India 100 runs behind overall, but were also on the field for almost a full session. This only implies that for every 50 that Sehwag scored, he gave India a better chance of victory. Since his appetite for big scores was legendary, he gave India an extra 20 overs (at the very least) on his own account to dismiss the opposition twice every time!

Progression of career strike rates of Sehwag, Hayden and Smith at the top of the order in the test format. Quite clearly, Sehwag has been the most destructive opener in the history of Test cricket.

Amongst Sehwag’s contemporaries, only Hayden and Smith are of comparable stature, deeds and statistics (SR ~60, Average> 49). But here too, Sehwag is in a one man club when his strike rate is considered. The extent of his dominance over his two other illustrious peers is illustrated in the fact that Sehwag’s lowest ever career strike rate is comparable to the highest ever career strike rates of Hayden and Smith. In the time period of 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2013 (the corresponding years that Sehwag played for India), Australia, South Africa and India were the teams with the best W/L ratio and batting averages. Coincidentally, the three openers played with some terrific batsmen down the order. The fact that each player has 3 other players below them in a stable batting order averaging over 49 has a nice touch of symmetry to it (over 3500 test runs). Here too, the Australian team was in a different zone with 4 other players in the 45 to 49 runs per dismissal band and if the bar is set lower at 1000 runs, the list is infested with ten Australians in all. Clearly, the Australians were able to find personnel to perform at a high level even after key personnel retired/ were dropped and this was a cornerstone to their success.

A plot of the percentage of (a) Wins from the total innings of 50+, 100+ and 150+ scored by top batsmen from Ind, Aus and RSA in Sehwag’s time. * Indicates that only figures as an opening batsmen have been considered.

Proceeding to examine the hypothesis of Sehwag’s whirlwind batting at the top of the order, one has to see the relative merits of scoring big and their concomitant effects on the result. Considering that a batsman has historically scored at ~37 runs per dismissal in the case of a win or a draw and ~21 in a defeat, a big score by a key batsman can have profound implications in the result of a match- mostly, a victory or a draw. Of course, the maxim of a side having to take 20 wickets to win a match rings loud and clear but the underlying effect of scoreboard pressure and setting up a match cannot be ignored. A key assumption made in this analysis is that with a greater score individual score being amassed, on an average, has a greater chance of a big team score being made and thus swinging the match in favour of the batsman’s team. Upon observing the historical trends of instances of a particular result occurring upon a batsman scoring over 50, over 100 and over 150 respectively, several patterns become clear. In spite of having similar batting giants dot the batting lineups of three winningest teams in the aforementioned period (1 Jan 2001 to 31 Dec 2013), the effect of a good bowling lineup is there for everyone to see. In general, scoring big is a guarantee to higher percentage of instances of victory and draws. However, for Indian batsmen, only Dravid is within sniffing distance of the level achieved by the Oz and Saffers; he has been on the winning side 60% of the time, that too after scoring a 150. Indian batsmen usually languish in the 40- 50% band, whereas, the batsmen from the other teams with better bowling attacks were able to force a favourable result for their respective teams.

A plot of the percentage of (b) Losses & (c) Draws from the total innings of 50+, 100+ and 150+ scored by top batsmen from Ind, Aus and RSA in Sehwag’s time. * Indicates that only figures as an opening batsmen have been considered.

A draw has been the most likely outcome when an Indian batsmen has scored big which is a damning indictment on the Indian team’s bowling inability to close out a match after piling on the runs. Universally, scoring big is the surest way to avoid defeat but this result should not come as a surprise given the very premise. Every batsman barring Hayden have featured in lesser defeats (% wise) after scoring a big hundred. A special mention should be made to the bullet proof batting lineup of the South Africans; every time Smith has scored a 100 or Amla/ Kallis/ de Villiers have scored a 150, their team has never lost! That this holds true from Kallis’ timeperiod to date is even more impressive.

A histogram of (a) India’s run rate versus Sehwag’s strike rate. India has outscored Sehwag’s career strike rate only once, that too with Sehwag’s 200.

And now to the end product of Sehwag’s heroics- the result. India have never been able to capitalize on Sehwag’s blazing starts. He’s the only batsman in this elite bunch whose likelihood of victory went down (correspondingly, the likelihood of a draw increased) with each addition of 50 to the individual score. His Win% drops from 42 to 27 when he zooms from 50 to 150 (in spite of him saving 6 overs per 50 additional runs scored, on an average). And given that he has scored pretty quickly, it only means that India have not put the extra overs that Sehwag has earned to good use. The Loss% has dropped no doubt but India have had a tendency to pile on the draws whenever Sehwag scored big. An explanation to this puzzling conundrum can be obtained upon perusal of the run rates that India have scored at. Sehwag has got a start (at least 20 runs) in 102 out 180 innings as an opener; only 2 of these innings have a SR of 50 (RR= 3) or lower and 12 are below SR of 67 (RR= 4). It is a result of these fantastic combustive ability that Sehwag’s lowest cumulative batting strike rate as an opener is an incredible 65, that too way back in 2002. Of all the matches that India have played with Sehwag in the side, only 11 of 103 matches have been above this run rate mark of 4. Keep the benchmark at Sehwag’s career run rate of 5 runs per over, only 1 match makes the cut. Unsurprisingly, Sehwag’s blitzkrieg 200 played a huge part in the run rate being 5 in the first place.

On the other hand, (b) Australia and (c) South Africa have scored at a faster rate compared to their respective opening batsmen, Hayden & Smith. The distribution of the histograms shows a greater number of innings clustered over the 3.8 RPO mark.

Simply put, India have never been able to press home the advantage once Sehwag got dismissed and at many times, batted apologetically at a lesser pace- as if to compensate for the carnage that had unfolded. On the other hand, Australia and South Africa scored at a comparable pace to the career strike rates of Hayden and Smith and in some cases, even higher than their highest cumulative career strike rate. Granted, Hayden and Smith did not bat at the same rate as Sehwag but even if we could hypothetically consider, rather sacrilegiously, that Sehwag were to be a part of these Australian and South African sides, they were more likely to follow his fireworks with some more of their own. The Indians, more often than not, were content in bringing out the sparklers once the big firecrackers blazed brightly against the festival sky.

Cruise and Sehwag: Two of a kind; both have accomplished pretty astonishing feats, best enjoyed on prime time TV. Caution: These stunts are performed by professionals. Please do not try this at home. Image sources: 4 & 5.

Sehwag’s detractors will be quick to point out that he made his big runs in Asia. While this may be true, not all of his knocks came on featherbeds. The sight of a spinner made him bring out the heavy artillery and he played with the mentality of a big game hunter. Others may point to majority of his big hundreds resulting in draws and imply that he scored easy runs and found the going tough on seaming pitches. And many others would simply blame his inability to bat for time, forgetting the very essence of Sehwag which changed the complexion of a match and made chasing 387 possible. This lingering sentiment encapsulates the hold that Sehwag has on us; like Tom Cruise, he’s never really been an actor who has won the plaudits for the depth & range of his craft. Yet, one can put his/ her money on him to make the most death defying stunts seemingly in range, even at an older age. To bring a smile to the face and some popcorn when he’s on the screen. Put bums on seats and bring some life to the turnstiles year after year. And get a warm, fuzzy feeling of nostalgia whenever “Take my breath away” or “Danger zone” or “Playing with the boys” is requested on the radio.

 Disclaimer: Some images used are not property of this blog. The copyright, if any, rests with the respective owners.

The bat is mightier than the sword: A blow beyond the fencing

Duminy, a thorn in the flesh of the Indian team this tour. Image source: 1

Indore was the seat of the Holkar dynasty under the Peshwa of the Maratha empire in the 18^th century, at the height of the Maratha empire. The empire that was praised by its enemies; it had taken on the mighty Aurangzeb, the Mughal emperor head on and wore him down. It was in this eponymous Holkar stadium that the old warhorse M S Dhoni rallied his troops to inflict damages on the mighty South African side, reminiscent of the guerilla skirmish tactics of the figurehead of the Maratha dynasty. It is definitely difficult to surmise Dhoni’s mindset leading the team for the umpteenth time, weary of battle. After all, he was India’s winningest ODI captain in history and a superman in coloured clothing. South Africa had motored along to 131 for 2 at the end of the 23^rd over and were only 117 adrift with the required run- rate a serene, non- violent Mahatma- Madiba like 4.33. India’s tormentor, J P Duminy was still batting, having creamed Yadav to 3 boundaries in the previous over, with the heavy artillery of A B de Villiers still holstered in the armoury. The gamble experiment with Suresh Raina had not worked in his two overs which costed 18 runs. The gambler, a moniker which was stuck to Dhoni ever since the T20 World Cup victory, would not have his way they said, even with a left hander at the crease. Almost on instinct, Dhoni tossed the ball to Axar Patel, of the pre- pubescent moustache and a lanky frame. On the last ball of the over, almost on cue, Duminy misses the line and gets struck in front. Vineet Kulkarni would not deny India this wicket (he would more than make up for his mistakes with Behardien’s wicket going India’s way later). Still, it would only delay the inevitable. How could India harbour thoughts of victory yet with the crowd favourite AB yet to come and his kryptonite injured in the previous match?

The captain in waiting is going through a torrid time of his own. Image source: 2

The South African visit was a hex on the Dhoni team so far. The India- A team had managed a comfortable victory in the warm up but this proved to be the false dawn with the senior team being duly thrashed in the T20 series that followed. The experts were vouching for the younger model, alluding to the law of nature. There was some evidence of subtle insubordination as well, and followed by a chafing contrarian counter that made for interesting viewing, coming from the older man. He is certainly not anchored in the same secure position of being the undisputed leader of all 3 formats ever since his retirement. His recent campaign in the rising Bangladesh has pockmarked his record and the difficulties of being jettisoned for a part of a bilateral series are all too well known. This, coupled with the new- fashioned ideas of the younger man which yielded good results in Sri Lanka, his ideas seem so…. 2012, when the end of the world was prophesized. The murmurs questioning his place in the team have only grown louder with time. His blockbuster party trick of the last over blitz had failed in the last ODI, that too against a greenhorn, with Dhoni having to explain himself excessively to a devouring pack of journalists cordoned off his mindspace ever since he became the captain.

Every person had become a critic, questioning his place in the side. Azhar, who had averaged 27 in his last 2 calendar years, a performance which resembled an average middle order bat. Aakash Chopra, of the 91 strike rate in T20s (with a solitary six) fame, even took a question on big hitting and Dhoni. This, of a person who averaged 59 @ 94 SR in the last two years and was the only Indian presence well above the world average of 34 in the same time period. Granted, before today’s match, he averaged 40 runs in 2015 but he’s not even in the reckoning to be the worst batsman in the Indian batting lineup this year but surely is a victim of his own high standards. After all, batsman who has averaged over 40 every calendar year since 2004 should be hailed as a panacea rather than subjected to a witch hunt. This is certainly not the first time a high profile performer (and certainly won’t be the last) has been targetted due to his visibility; the peerless Tendulkar has been targetted time and again for his hundreds in a losing cause, questioning his appetite to finish a match- a Rohit Sharma innings of a similar template does not elicit the same response from the intelligentsia. It is perhaps a sign of the standards expected from the ho- hum routine performers when their failures are highlighted in the same vein as the successes of the others.

Dhoni is not the same player of old- the buccaneering, swashbuckling dasher who set the stage alight a decade ago. The whispers of him losing his ability to hit big have pointed to the fable of the biblical Samson, the one who lost his strength with his mane. It must be remembered that Tendulkar too remodelled his game after umpteen injuries. Dhoni has every license of doing so with a brittle batting order around him, one which has been 4 down for less than 150 in 26 games and has lost 17 times in the two years leading till July 2015. The strange equation involving Rahane and Dhoni has been compounded by Kohli’s failure at no. 4 this year, having scored a wretched 39 runs in 5 outings. Dhoni takes his time to build an innings nowadays, a feature that he has himself confessed to, but his ODI cadence more than makes up for his initial settlement period thus resulting in his ~90 strike rate. The problem is further exacerbated by the absence of a nuclear warhead in the late middle order- one who can blast attacks at will and take first strike in a super over. Apart from Yusuf Pathan, only Raina performs this role sporadically and Dhoni has not played an innings of this nature since 2011. On this note, questioning Dhoni’s role in the ODI team is uncalled for whereas his place in the T20 team is certainly food for thought.

A mighty blow to the critics of the champion. Image source: 3

It was in this backdrop that Dhoni came to the crease with India smarting at 82/3 which escalated to 102/4, 104/5 and 124/6 with the threat of a curtailed innings looming large. In typical Dhoni fashion, he dug his heels, motoring along with the tail and doing what he does best- score runs in seemingly ugly fashion. At the death, he summoned the Dhoni of old, exploding and launching into a strong bowling attack to a scarcely believable 247. The naysayers would still point to the five dot balls in the final over in their first drafts of their articles in print & electronic media. The ones with longer memories would hint at another futile effort in the manner of the Tunbridge Wellseque Chennai knock against Pakistan. How could India win considering India’s last successful defence of a sub- 250 score in 50 overs came against a brittle Pakistan in 2013? How could India dream to defend 248 on a ground where the previous lowest score batting first was 288, that too with such a profligate bowling attack? How would India reconcile to losing further ground in the series and the Maratha bastion, of the two fiefdoms of the erstwhile confederacy to have witnessed ODI double hundreds? More importantly, how on earth would India stop AB de Villiers?

Unreal roars would welcome AB to the crease, with the familiar IPL hero having removed the last vestiges of partisanship from the crowd. Faf would depart soon after, having hit straight to cover. Surely David Miller was due for a big score? It was not to be. Two balls later, Yadav removes the tentative batsman poking through to Dhoni, one of the 4 dismissals he has a hand in. It was Miller time all right, but for India. Could India dare to dream with the last- lest we jinx it- recognized batting pair? Patel and Kumar go through 4 tight overs before Kumar is flayed by AB for a six- 11 for the over. Surely an ominous sign of the things to come? Harbhajan is thrown the ball and changing the angles gets South Africa closer by 4. Mohit Sharma charges in and the scenes are delirious after the first ball; AB has smashed one to his RCB teammate at cover, who takes a leaping catch. Many a headline has been hastily erased at this juncture, but only just. Everyone knows that Dhoni spins a good yarn and writes a good script but who knows what the post- script will be? It is not looking good with Dale Steyn taking a liking to Harbhajan, the target a comfortable 67 in 16 overs. Behardien had been an able foil to Duminy in the first T20– what if he spoiled the show? Some good slice of fortune follows the next two wickets and India is into the tail, a sensation that was last experienced in the final fling of the Australian summer in the World cup. Could Rabada become a hero with the bat? Jinxes and reverse jinxes follow as Rabada piles on a composed 19. The edges too are falling South Africa’s way. Will India (gulp!) choke on this match?

Would this match make it to the movie? Image source: 4

India has now run out of the overs of the full time spinners. Opting between the slog sweep, cow corner bait spin bowling and the outside edge, boundary seeking heat missile fast bowling has the makings of Sophie’s choice. More nails are chewed. Kumar is going to be taken to the cleaners at his pace. No way MS, you’ve written your own obituary. Pencils and swords sharpened. Visions of an adopted Pakistani, running amok around the ground, arms aloft come to mind. Tahir swishes hard outside off stump and Dhoni leaps upon pouching the ball. Did he edge it? Tell me, did he edge it? Yes he did! Up goes the finger! Oh wait, Ravi Shastri is not on air. Never mind. Dhoni is animated and celebrates having taken the catch, a reaction of self-congratulation that had previously made a cursory appearance in the 2010 IPL and the Champions trophy victory. It must get over now, please! Morkel has a high right elbow that Gavaskar would be proud of. Damn, four more runs. Morkel edges the next ball but wait, it goes out of frame towards a tumbling Raina who has the ball behind him. Just like his generation to drop it. Hang on, Dhoni is celebrating and players are running to the middle!! And just like that, catharsis. The Maratha bastion was not to be felled this time. Sure, there might be an Anglo- Maratha war the next time around. But until that, we can savour that we have our own Peshwa. At this rate, no other scriptwriter other than MS would be necessary for the movie.