After more than a month of 45 matches in the league phase of the 2019 World Cup, the business end of the tournament is finally here. Just three matches remain in the tournament—the most significant matches of them all. Doing (or not doing) well in these matches can leave deep imprints in the collective memory of fans and in the annals of cricketing history. Have a doubt? Ask South Africa or New Zealand. The former usually do well in the group stages and the mere mention of the word “knockout” is enough to bring out their worst—or at least, that is what conventional wisdom says. This time though, they haven’t made it this far. The Kiwis, on the other hand, are perennial overachievers, often making it to the semifinals of a major tournament ahead of much-fancied sides with greater resources. This time too, they have sneaked through in fourth place.
In the next three matches, league position counts for zilch. Nada. Or nothing, if you want to use plain English. Knockout matches typically tend to be tense, cagey affairs where the formbook can be thrown out of the window, and teams have traditionally chosen to bat first to impose scoreboard pressure on their opponents. Given all this, what can India do to maximize chances of victory come next Sunday?
Initially, it seemed that injuries may have thrown the team off balance. Shikhar Dhawan’s injury was no doubt a big setback but K L Rahul has taken baby steps towards stepping into the southpaw’s very big shoes in ICC tournaments; although, Rahul is a bit similar to Rohit Sharma at the top of the order (both take their time to get going) and this puts undue pressure on the rest of the team. Similarly, Bhuvi’s injury lengthened India’s tail to Hanuman-esque proportions but Shami’s bowling has been a revelation. The muddle at number 4 still exists but Rishabh Pant’s inclusion seems to have injected some power and dynamism into the side.
In terms of results and performance with respect to expectation though, there is very little that has surprised fans about the Indian team performance. For instance, we did know that Bumrah was one of the best bowlers in the world—his showing has only reinforced this fact. Similarly, the team being reliant on the top order wasn’t a major mystery either. While India closed out two tight games against Bangladesh and Afghanistan (games that they may have lost 20 years ago due to lack of quality bowling personnel), the reverse against England once again exposed the chronic deficiencies of this team which shouldn’t be swept under the carpet after a couple of easy wins. The soft underbelly of the team that is the middle order still is an issue and God forbid, should the top order have an off day, the team will mostly fall short of its target. The other issue is that of taking wickets in the first half of the innings, which leaves India playing catch-up with respect to the game. In the knockouts, they will be playing against (possibly) two formidable opponents who can exploit these weakness to their advantage.
Therefore, to do well one has to pay heed to some surprising trends that have played out a bit differently compared to expectation, particularly as the tournament has progressed. Over the last 4 years, until this World Cup, England has been the second-most expensive place for non-home bowlers (behind Pakistan, where only a paltry 3 matches have been played), with bowlers conceding 6.21 runs per over. Some of it is no doubt due to the belligerence of the England team, but simultaneously, it is also true that England is also the second-most expensive place for home bowlers as well (also behind Pakistan), at 5.88 runs per over. At this World Cup though, the average runs per over has been 5.63, with five teams below this figure. Meaning, the pitches haven’t been as flat as one would have initially feared.
Second, though 5.63 corresponds to a score of ~281, there has been a distinct advantage in batting first if a decent score is posted on the board. This tournament has produced 25 scores of 250 and above in the first innings of the 45 matches. Of these matches, only two (West Indies and Sri Lanka) have been lost by the team batting first, suggesting that the par-score is much lesser than the suggested 281 and that scoreboard pressure has had an influence so far. With jaded pitches, one can expect this to be exacerbated in the final 3 matches.
Third, the effectiveness of spinners has only come down as the tournament progressed. Between the 2015 and 2019 World cups, fast bowlers and some leg spinners had done well in England. But if one were to examine the statistics from the first and second halves of the league phase, they are as different as chalk and cheese; in the former, leg spinners have held their own with the fast men but in the space of a couple of weeks, the their returns have been less flattering. Therefore, it is time to re-think the two spinners strategy.
Therefore, for India, the way to go is to make minor changes to increase their chances of victory. See out the new ball challenge against Starc, Boult, Archer and co. with a mix of caution and calculated aggression, with one of the top 3 staying on till the 35th over (Kohli is due for a big score and Rohit Sharma might not convert one of these days); if batting first and in a favourable position, push Dhoni down to 7; if the team loses 2-3 wickets cheaply, promote him up to absorb the blow and set a platform; the batting order in the second innings will depend on the RPO and this should be decided run-time; play 3 pacers with Shami opening the bowling and bowling out his quota early, and Bhuvi and Bumrah to operate at the death; go with only one tweaker, and to fight England on their own terms, play Jadeja as the spinner to lengthen the batting order with Bhuvi coming in at 9. Though this is no guarantee for victory or performance, it is based on how this tournament has played out and will mitigate some of the weaknesses that India has, thus increasing the odds of success.
paajivspunter 
