Why has the IPL been such a big hit?

Since 2008, most of top stars in the cricketing world have been taking a collective break from international and domestic cricket to take part in the Indian Premier League (IPL) that happens mostly in a ~2 month window between March and May. In short, during this time period the IPL has been the cynosure of the cricketing world at large. Looking back, even though it may seem inevitable that viewership in cricket would crave a shorter format, it wasn’t really obvious at the time. In fact, it seems rather incredulous today that BCCI and India were quite indifferent to T20’s charms initially (more on this shortly). But what contributes to the enduring appeal of the IPL? What are the various factors that have made the league what it is today—the biggest commercial property outside international cricket (and quite possibly will surpass it soon)? The answers lie in two major factors—timing and scheduling. Though both terms may look like synonyms, the reader can be rest assured that they aren’t in this instance.

The first reason for the popularity of the IPL and T20 format, as it has been with many commercial products, has been the factor of timing. Around the turn of the millennium, the last bastion of healthy turnout for the first-class game—England—had started witnessing lower turnouts. Especially, the younger generation were preferring to adopt other sports in favour of cricket. The marketing manager of the ECB, Stuart Robertson, suggested looking a compressed format which was more in tune with current temporal demands. A year later, despite facing some opposition from the county chairmen, on the back of some last over slogging, the format found a midwife.

International cricket didn’t take the format seriously—the first T20 international featured mirthful scenes, also featuring mock red card to Glenn McGrath for impersonating the infamous underarm incident. In a couple of years, most nations played their first T20 game, drawing a mix of curiosity and bewilderment from their supporters. India was one of the last “big” nations to play its inaugural game; its domestic version, was a damp squib. “T20? Why not ten-ten or five-five or one-one?” thundered Niranjan Shah in the 2006 ICC board meeting, before boldly proclaiming that India would never play the format. The rival ICL, which had gained some momentum, was swiftly put out of business by BCCI.

At the same time, the ODI format had plateaued. Australia had sleepwalked to their third successive World Cup and was the standout team in a format with few surprises; ICC’s various attempts to enliven the game (supersub, superseries, experimenting with field restrictions and so on) had failed to hit the mark. India, quite disastrously, got knocked out in the group stage, making the tournament less palatable to the various stakeholders. The farcical 2007 World Cup final served as a fine (if it can be called that) example of everything that had gone wrong with the over-milked cash cow that was the ODI format.

It was in this setting that the T20 format captured the public imagination. Why, it seems really hard to believe that India were not too keen on fielding a team for the inaugural World T20 and had to be subtly arm-twisted into doing so by Ehsan Mani. India grudgingly sent a squad which reeked of the distaste that BCCI had for the new-fangled format—the team, captained by a greenhorn M S Dhoni, did not feature the batting superstars. More importantly, the short, crisp tournament was everything the ODI World Cup wasn’t—Australia were beatable (even by Zimbabwe), many matches were close, and an Indian victory ensured eyeballs and some instant love. By the time India had won the tense, cagey final, to paraphrase and misquote Victor Hugo, no BCCI could stop the idea of T20 whose time had come. The IPL had been launched in low-key fashion a few days before the victory, and BCCI now had the opportunity of being at the right place at the right time. 11 years after the first edition, it is safe to say that cricket hasn’t been the same ever since.

The other factor which has undoubtedly worked for the IPL is scheduling. One look at the future tours program shows that there is a pattern to international (and domestic) cricket. Essentially, cricket takes place during a 6-month window in various nations across the world. Cricket in England is a summer-time sport with the highlight of the cricket season headlined around the peak of summer; it is also the case in the other countries in the temperate zones which are not affected by a torrential rainy season (April-September in England and October-March in Australia, South Africa and New Zealand). On the other hand, even though the Asian countries are situated in the Northern hemisphere, playing cricket is not possible during the traditional English summer season due to the monsoon. Hence, in the subcontinent, cricket is a winter-time sport (October-March), which runs in tandem along with the cricketing schedules of the Southern hemisphere cricketing nations. The tropical West Indies grapple with a different problem despite having no monsoon and having great sunshine through the year—the hurricane season during the second half of the calendar year. This international cricket schedule percolates down to the domestic seasons as well. Looking at the pre-existing pattern, the scheduling window for the now-defunct Champions League T20 seems obvious.

This is exactly why the IPL during April and May is a scheduling masterstroke (not to mention its alignment with the school summer vacations); it is during the second half of the day in the hottest, driest part of the year and it does not conflict with the traditional cricketing seasons of most countries (barring England and WI). In fact, this tournament opened up a 2-month window in India, when domestic cricket traditionally wouldn’t take place hitherto as the longer formats were probably too harsh on the players in the oppressive summer.

Since the tournament does not clash with existing domestic structures of most cricketing nations, the presence of top stars has been all but ensured. The West Indies players are some of the most sought after T20 stars, and the conflicts between the players and the board have undoubtedly helped the IPL’s cause. This also explains the love-hate relationship between the English cricketing establishment and the IPL—the English players have either usually had to pick IPL over their domestic commitments or have been passed over entirely. No doubt the IPL has the first-mover advantage, but crucially, it has been aided by other favourable circumstances too—no domestic cricket runs in parallel with this tournament (as it has been the case in other countries such as Australia, England and others), and no overlap with other T20 leagues as well.

Therefore, the IPL’s success stems from these factors creating the perfect storm and it has hence become a league like no other in world cricket.

 

 

 

 

Who should make the India World Cup squad?

On April 15th, the people who matter in the Indian cricketing setup will meet in Mumbai to select the squad for the upcoming World Cup. At a time when the IPL serves as a major distraction, one can be rest assured that the decisions of this group will be watched closely; after all, the hopes of the gazillions of fans rest in this special group of cricketers who have a shot at immortality.

For Virat Kohli, this tournament will represent a watershed moment in his limited overs captaincy career. After a string of impressive results around the world, the home series loss to Australia was a spanner in the works. The poor results at Royal Challengers Bangalore have set the tongues wagging as well. Kohli was an up and coming player in the 2011 edition which India won, playing an important role in steadying the Indian innings on more than one occasion (most memorably in the final). Now, he’s the all-important batting champion around which the entire team operates. His masterful batting has been absolutely crucial in papering over the middle order cracks that have plagued this Indian team for a while now. There are some other headaches as well, caused by the muddled thinking on part of the team management.

The makeup of the team that should be picked can be determined from recent trends. Since the 2015 World Cup, England has been the most expensive place for non-home bowlers, with the run-rate at ~6.13—the runaway leader for this period. While it is true that some of it may be due to a belligerent England team, who have been the standout batting team in this period, England is still the third most expensive place for home bowlers (after Pakistan, who have played only 3 matches in this period, and Sri Lanka, who have been especially poor); meaning, pitches in England have been the flattest in the world since the 2015 World Cup.

Which bowlers have done well in England? In the same period, leggie Adil Rashid has been the highest wicket taker; pacers such as Willey, Plunkett and Woakes have had decent returns as well. More importantly, finger spinners and part-timers have been on the receiving end, returning very expensive figures for their craft. Unless this English summer turns out to be unusually wet, there is no reason to believe situations will be very different from what has been the norm in the last 4 years. Hence, it is best to select the personnel accordingly.

With only the warm-up fixtures left before India’s first match against the South Africans on June 5th at the Rose Bowl, it is time to select the squad and back the personnel to come up with the goods. But who should make the cut? Despite statements that only one spot could be for grabs, the situation is more complicated considering the issues of team balance, middle order batting, flexibility and bowling limitations. For better readability, the discussion has been demarcated into top order batsmen, middle order batsmen and wicket keepers, all-rounders and spin bowlers, and fast bowlers. Readers are advised to keep in mind the player’s primary skill, and that there will be overlaps or conflicts depending on one’s personal opinion (for example, whether you think Jadhav or Shankar is an all-rounder or not). The data has been organized into a table which contains information on the runs scored and wicket-taking in the last 10 ODI innings (where applicable) and on similar statistics from the ongoing IPL (with number of innings in brackets). Though IPL stats cannot be used straightaway to make a decision about ODI abilities, some insights can nevertheless be drawn. All stats provided are correct as on 7th April 2019.

Top order batsmen

Name Last 10 inn. batting aggregate@SR Last 10 inn. bowling aggregate (ER) 2019 IPL batting aggregate@SR (I) 2019 IPL bowling aggregate@ER (I)
R G Sharma 371@74 NA 118@123 (5) NA
S Dhawan 365@91 NA 152@116(6) NA
K L Rahul 147@78 NA 142@118(5) NA
V Kohli 608@95 NA 203@126(6) NA

The Indian top 3 is possibly the strongest top order in the ODI game right now, clearly presenting a double-edged sword. On their day, they can win matches on their own; but find a way through, the soft underbelly that is the Indian middle order has been found wanting. Barring Kohli, no one has been in sparkling touch recently but one of the openers should come good in England. Nonetheless, the top 3 select themselves. As far as the reserve opener is concerned, there aren’t any promising candidates apart from K L Rahul. He seems to enjoy the confidence of the team management despite having middling returns in the 14 matches that he has played in this format, and the team seems to have moved on from Rahane.

Middle order batsmen and wicketkeepers

Name Last 10 inn. batting aggregate@SR Last 10 inn. bowling aggregate (ER) 2019 IPL batting aggregate@SR (I) 2019 IPL bowling aggregate@ER (I)
A T Rayudu 247@77 NA 55@77(5) NA
K Jadhav 306@100 5/286(5.95) 106@96(4) NA
V Shankar 165@96+ 2/188+ (5.61) 105@144(5) 0/26@8.66(2)
M S Dhoni 357@82 NA 156@125(4) NA
R Pant 93@131+ NA 176@173(6) NA
K D Karthik 242@86 NA 72@129(4) NA

+the player has played in fewer than 10 ODIs

Given the recent trend of maximising scoring in the middle overs, the importance of Jadhav and Pandya (who’s listed as an all-rounder) to this lineup cannot be stated enough. As it can be seen from their overall record and recent showing, they are the two batsmen who have the game to boost the run rate in the middle overs. While Dhoni has scored enough runs, he hasn’t done it quickly enough—although, it is good enough if he can play as the anchor around whom the batting order pivots (much like Imran Khan did in 1992). Rayudu’s case is more complicated—he showed some promise until recently, when his performance dipped. But his bigger issue is that of strike rate; he’s not been able to rotate the strike in tune with the demands of the modern game and the team cannot have two batting slowpokes in Dhoni and Rayudu. So for this reason and for his below-average fielding, he has to sit the big tournament out. Dinesh Karthik—an able deputy to Dhoni and a busy batsman in his new avatar—should get the nod ahead of the Rishabh Pant, who is yet to show his mettle in the ODI format. Vijay Shankar’s case is the most interesting; he’s batted well so far in the limited chances that he’s got, has got the big shots, and is a splendid fielder to boot. But his bowling is in the Jadhav category and cannot be trusted on the biggest stage. But among the contenders, he’s probably the one alongside Jadhav who can fill in the sixth bowling option.

All-rounders and spinners

Name Last 10 inn. batting aggregate@SR Last 10 inn. bowling aggregate (ER) 2019 IPL batting aggregate@SR (I) 2019 IPL bowling aggregate@ER (I)
H Pandya 147@100 7/381(5.47) 102@179(5) 4/144@9.6(5)
R A Jadeja 147@70 10/462(4.67) 15@75(3) 4/95@5.93(5)
Y S Chahal NA 21/501(5.50) NA 9/165@6.87(6)
K Yadav NA 18/493(5.54) NA 3/155@8.61(5)

As articulated earlier, Jadeja isn’t an ODI all-rounder considering his inability to clear the field; besides, his ODI bowling has declined and his electric fielding ability cannot hide his other deficiencies. Hence, Jadeja can only be considered as a spinner who is a handy batsman at 8. On his day, he can pull off a run-out and bowl a few tidy overs, but his downside on flat pitches outweighs any potential upside. Pandya, Chahal and Kuldeep Yadav should walk into the side.

Fast bowlers

Name Last 10 inn. batting aggregate@SR Last 10 inn. bowling aggregate (ER) 2019 IPL batting aggregate@SR (I) 2019 IPL bowling aggregate@ER (I)
M Shami NA 17/445(5.01) NA 5/187@9.35(5)
J J Bumrah NA 16/383(4.19) NA 5/126@6.75(5)
B Kumar 163@74 19/425(5.23) NA 3/178@9.36(5)
U Yadav NA 14/492(5.96) NA 2/126@8.49(4)
K Ahmed NA 11/338+ (5.36) NA* NA*

*the player hasn’t played in 2019 IPL

+the player has played in fewer than 10 ODIs

In his young career, Bumrah is already at a level higher than India’s greatest ever ODI fast bowlers. Without a doubt, he is the pace spearhead. Mohammed Shami, bowling with renewed pace and hostility, has solved the problem of opening bowling to some extent, but as his IPL figures show, he is expensive at the death. Bhuvaneshwar Kumar has regressed as a wicket taking and containing bowler as well, but has done enough to slot in as the third seamer (not to mention, his fantastic batting ability at number 8). There is no clear candidate for the fourth seamer, but stats in England since the 2015 World Cup show that wrist spin and pace bowling have done better than finger spin. Umesh Yadav has been off-colour in the IPL, and Khaleel Ahmed—who has done decently for India in his few matches—hasn’t played for the Sunrisers. All things considered, I’d pick Khaleel over Jadeja for variety.

The weaknesses of this team? One, the team is a bit short of experience beyond the first 11. In 2011, Piyush Chawla, the least experienced member was 22 matches young; Virat Kohli, the other greenhorn had played 45 matches, with every other squad member having played many more matches. Two, the team is still reliant on its top order; while batting first, if there is a collapse, Dhoni has to be the glue at 4. In other fair weather conditions, the bigger hitters have to bat ahead of him to maximize India’s scoring opportunities in the middle overs. Three, the bowling isn’t an effective deterrent yet; Bumrah is obviously world-class, but the others aren’t foolproof and Kuldeep Yadav’s novelty will probably wear out in a long tournament. Five quality overs from Bumrah at the death are a given but how the team sends down five more overs without much damage will be the key to defending tricky totals.

First XI: Rohit, Dhawan, Kohli, Dhoni, Karthik, Jadhav, Pandya, Kuldeep, Chahal, Shami, Bumrah

4 substitutes: K L Rahul, Bhuvaneshwar Kumar, Vijay Shankar, Khaleel Ahmed

Prediction: Barring the champion West Indies and Australia teams, the World Cup has been won by the “form” teams who raised their performances at the right time. With an extended round-robin phase, and with no current outstanding side (England has bigger bowling weaknesses compared to India), the initial league matches will only serve as an appetizer, with the tournament coming alive in the last 3 matches. India has the ammunition to go all the way, but I suspect they will lose in the finals. Anything less than winning all but 2 matches and making the semifinals will be a massive underperformance.