The muddle in the middle

Pining for a spine: Various Indian cricketers are under the spotlight with less than a year to go for the World Cup. Image source: 1.

A couple of days ago, a controversy lurked in the lead-up to the Asia Cup. The Mumbai Mirror reported that the broadcaster, having paid hefty sums to obtain the television rights for the series, had apparently been miffed at Virat Kohli’s absence from the forthcoming Asia Cup fixtures. While it can be easily argued that the broadcaster has no right to interfere in the team selection, we are taking a longer argument to say that Kohli’s absence from the tournament is a blessing in disguise for India, considering the muddle in the middle order. Hold on to that thought.

Not so long ago, the Indian team set sail (metaphorically) to England, hoping to compete on even terms on a lengthy tour. They showed plenty of pluck, especially during the limited overs leg, when they brushed aside the hosts. However, familiar failings reared their ugly heads by making recurrent appearances. The victories were a case in point; India won the 1^st and 3^rd T20I, and the 1^st ODI quite comfortably. In each match, at least one member of the top order batted deep into the match. What about the matches India lost? The team lost steam once the top 3 were dismissed cheaply, and this has been India’s bane for quite a while now. Sadly, this was not the dress rehearsal that the team hoped for with less than one year to go for the 2019 World Cup.

Truth be told, the Indian ODI team has struggled for lumbar support in the middle order, especially in positions 4-7 for a while now. Since the 2015 World Cup, India’s top order has been in spectacular form; scoring at nearly 58 runs per dismissal at a ~92 SR, it is the envy of world cricket. On the other hand, India’s middle order (batting positions 4-7) is middling, with South Africa’s and England’s collective records well ahead of everyone else’s. India’s stats lie alongside those of Pakistan, Bangladesh and New Zealand. As fellow thREAD contributor put it recently, India’s top order has been babysitting the lower middle order. With the 2019 World Cup looming in the distance, India has to quickly solve its middle order riddle. Only Dhoni can be considered as a fixture, as he has scored runs consistently, though he has found some difficulty in raising the tempo from the get-go (more on this shortly).

The Indian ODI side’s most glaring holes are in the number 4 and 5 slots. In the 62 matches since the 2015 World Cup, 17 players have occupied these positions, collectively averaging ~35 runs per dismissal and second only to a Sri Lankan team that has been in lengthy transition.

The Asia cup represents a lifeline for the various candidates in contention for a middle-order berth. To make matters worse, candidates who are waiting in the wings such as Shreyas Iyer and Rishabh Pant (not including the dropped Rahane) are essentially top order batsmen who have to audition for a spot in the middle order. Barring a major miracle, the selectors seem to have moved on from Yuvraj, Raina and Rahane.

K L Rahul looks primed to bat at number 3. The team management fancies him and his skills, and with a big knock in the last test match, he has played himself back into contention. With the best teams looking to flex their muscle at the top, he is no doubt the favourite to take Kohli’s slot.

Similarly, Hardik Pandya’s slot is set in stone, unless unfavourable circumstances dictate otherwise. Though he may not be a test-class bowler at this stage, there is little doubt about his utility as an ODI all-rounder. His useful bowling, electric fielding and high-risk, high-reward batting are made for the limited overs formats. He is yet to cement his place in the side, but due to the TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor, he is probably assured of a spot barring a major injury or loss of form.

Amongst the others, the little man making a comeback after an injury is a favourite to grab another middle order slot (mostly at six). Jadhav has many reasons going for him: one, he has India’s second best lower middle order record after Dhoni; second, he has adapted his batting style to suit the hustle and bustle of the end-overs, treading a fine balance between madness and method; and finally, Pandya cannot be relied upon to complete his 10 overs in ODIs just yet (or rather, any bowler can have a bad day). Jadhav, with his weird bowling action, represents the only form of insurance. With Rohit and Kohli not bowling anymore and with Raina and Yuvraj out of the side, he’s the only batsman with some recent bowling experience; though, it feels odd that India has to rely on someone who has bowled only 755 List A deliveries to date, with 593 of those coming in the ODIs that he played in and resulting in some comical wickets. One way of looking at it is that it was an inspired gamble by Dhoni; the other way is that he is two matches away from his career as a bowler being cruelly finished at the big stage. Either way, he is the man for the job for now; it would be a stretch to expect someone else to take the gloves from Dhoni so that the latter can add to his ODI wicket tally.

Now to Dhoni—why shouldn’t he be pushed up the order in ODI cricket to get the best out of his abilities?

To date, Dhoni has batted in the top 4 only in 45 out of his 274 innings—a measly 16.4%. Dhoni’s average batting position is ~5.5 which shows that he has largely batted in the lower middle order. That he has amassed nearly 10,000 runs batting at such a low position is an outstanding achievement and a testament to his prowess in the ODI game. In comparison, other members of the ODI 10k run club mostly batted in the top 4. What is more, whenever Dhoni has been given the opportunity higher up, he has performed excellently, averaging more than ~82 and ~55 runs per dismissal at no. 3 and 4 respectively (only 2 innings at no.2).

For some reason, the team management has always been averse to the idea of Dhoni following Kohli in the batting order. This can be gleaned by looking at the partnership data. Between the third and the fifth wicket partnerships, Kohli and Dhoni have batted together only 40 times over nearly a decade of playing together. For the 3^rd wicket you ask? It has happened only 5 times. With these two proven, experienced performers, it looks like the team think-tank want to spread the experience and hedge their bets against a rampaging pacer ripping apart the top order and exposing the lower middle order.

While it is a valid concern, it must be noted that Dhoni is perhaps the most adept at handling pressure situations in ODI cricket. His batting record in dire circumstances while batting in the lower middle order has been the stuff of legend. The following two tweets published last year provide a snapshot about his “iceman” status. Without a doubt, he has been the man for crisis situations.

https://twitter.com/SampathStats/status/939796916287651841

https://twitter.com/Rehan_ulhaq/status/939794704497078272

With such a track record, such fears are unfounded and one would have to back him to come up with the goods when the team needs it the most. After all, it must be remembered that not so long ago, Sachin Tendulkar was pushed down the order to avoid “exposing” him to the new ball, but the little master proved everyone wrong by continuing to perform excellently at the opening position.

Though Dhoni has a healthy overall strike rate of ~83, a recent drawback in his game has been a decline in his power hitting capabilities—especially from the first ball. Since the World cup, barring Ajinkya Rahane, Dhoni has been slower (in Strike rate terms) compared to all his other ODI teammates who have scored 300 runs. In fact, readers may recall that this was the basis of our argument of him not deserving a batting slot in the T20I side for a really long time (but he’s answered most of his critics with a fantastic IPL 2018). As discussed earlier, Dhoni has been taking much longer to get going, and this has resulted in him making up his strike rate only much later in the innings. With this in mind, it makes sense to shift him to number 4—where he can bide his time, knock the ball around and get primed to launch an assault by the time the middle overs are done, with batting depth to follow. IPL 2018 has shown us glimpses of what this all-time legend can be, given the right batting opportunities. Though Dhoni has coveted that position for long, he hasn’t really got an extended opportunity higher up the batting order. After years of superlative service, he has earned the right to bat at the point where the batting order pivots, much like Imran Khan in the twilight of his career at the 1992 World Cup.

The other remaining slot will be a toss-up between Rayudu, Pandey and Karthik, which is a real head-scratcher. Would you pick Rayudu, who had a great IPL, or Pandey, who had an average IPL but did well on the sidelines to make the India squad? Or will it be Karthik, who had a good series in Sri Lanka and the IPL but faded away in the England tour? We’d plump for Pandey, but your guess is as good as ours. In any case, the Asia cup is a good low-spotlight stage for this audition. Without the safety net of Kohli, the relatively safe environs of the Asia cup is no doubt the best place to check out the middle order candidates.

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